Global Cocoa Shortage: What It Means for Procurement & Supply Chain

The cocoa supply chain is walking a tightrope, and this year, it might just lose its balance. 

Global cocoa production is projected to fall short by over 1 million metric tons in 2025, leaving a gaping hole in the supply chain. 

With demand for chocolate rising by 3% annually and climate change wreaking havoc on cocoa farms, we’re heading for a cocoa crunch. 

But what’s driving this deficit, and can we fix it? 

The Looming Cocoa Deficit 

Data from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) underscores the severity of the situation. In the 2023-24 season, global cocoa production was estimated at 4.382 million tons, a significant 13.1% decrease from the previous season. 

Concurrently, global grindings — a proxy for demand — stood at 4.816 million tons, leading to a supply deficit of 478,000 tons. This shortfall has driven end-of-season stocks down by 26.8%, reaching a 45-year low in the stocks-to-grindings ratio of 27.0% 

The ICCO attributes this decline to unfavorable weather conditions, diseases and pests affecting major cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. These challenges have been exacerbated by climate change, leading to erratic weather patterns that disrupt cocoa farming cycles. 

Rising Demand Amidst Shrinking Supply 

While supply dwindles, the appetite for chocolate shows no signs of abating. The global chocolate market is growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3-4%, driven by increasing consumption in emerging markets and a trend towards premium chocolate products. This rising demand, juxtaposed with supply constraints, has led to significant volatility in cocoa prices. 

In June 2024, cocoa futures prices in London reached £6,693.67 per ton, reflecting the market's response to supply tightness. 

The high prices have had ripple effects across the industry. 

In 2024, candy producers reported using less chocolate during Halloween to mitigate costs, a trend highlighted by Wells Fargo. Such adjustments indicate how supply challenges are reshaping product formulations and pricing strategies. 

Climate Change: The Silent Culprit 

A 2021 study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-producing region, could see a 30-40% decline in suitable cocoa-growing areas by 2050. 

This projection stems from rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, which not only reduce arable land but also increase the prevalence of pests and diseases. The Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD), for instance, has already caused significant crop losses in countries like Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. 

Procurement Strategies for Managing Cocoa Shortage 

To mitigate risks and control costs, procurement teams must adopt strategic sourcing, supplier diversification, cost management, alternative ingredients, and supply chain resilience. 

1. Strategic Sourcing: 

Procurement should explore alternative cocoa sources beyond West Africa, such as Latin America (Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia) and Asia (Indonesia). Direct trade relationships with cooperatives can enhance transparency, stabilize prices, and improve ethical sourcing. Investing in sustainable farming programs strengthens long-term supply. 

2. Supplier Diversification: 

Relying on multiple suppliers from different regions minimizes the risk of localized shortages. Expanding vendor networks to include a mix of large-scale suppliers and small cooperatives improves agility. Some companies have successfully blended cocoa from various origins to stabilize supply while maintaining product quality. 

3. Cost Management: 

To mitigate price volatility, procurement can leverage hedging and forward contracts, locking in cocoa prices to avoid market spikes. Long-term agreements with suppliers, volume-based rebates, and price indexation can stabilize costs. Competitive supplier negotiations and lean demand planning also help manage expenses efficiently. 

4. Alternative Ingredients: 

Cocoa substitutes can help reduce dependency on pure cocoa. Cocoa Butter Equivalents (CBEs), such as shea and palm-based fats, can replace a portion of cocoa butter. Carob, chicory, and barley extracts can extend cocoa powder usage without sacrificing flavor. Emerging cocoa-free chocolate innovations (e.g., fermented oats, sunflower seed derivatives) could become viable procurement options. 

5. Supply Chain Resilience: 

Strengthening logistics partnerships and diversifying storage locations ensures uninterrupted supply. Holding buffer stocks during favorable market conditions protects against sudden price surges. Advanced forecasting tools and real-time market intelligence help procurement teams anticipate shortages early. Supporting climate-resilient farming and sustainable agroforestry practices enhances long-term production stability. 

Conclusion 

Balancing short-term cost control with long-term sustainability—through ethical sourcing and farmer support—is key. Companies that stay agile and adapt procurement strategies will navigate the crisis, ensuring stable product availability and pricing despite market fluctuations, ultimately emerging stronger in a volatile cocoa industry.